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NBA conferences still show disparity
2010-02-03

After a run of the East seemingly gaining ground over the past few years, the Western Conference has been superior this season. This is evidenced by the fact that the Eastern Conference has six teams with winning records (one is one game over .500) and the West has just four teams with losing records among its 15 members. Let’s dig into the details a little further and see if we can’t use any of the findings to profit on Wednesday’s NBA betting board. See all of the wagering options on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.

One thing to consider this year besides the overall dominance once again, the wagering aspect comes into play more than one might think. The West holds a 160-122 SU (56.7%) edge in head-to-head competition against those from the other conference. It would make sense the West would also be grabbing most of the money when these teams meet, however their stranglehold ends up being a little tighter than traditional numbers. The West is 150-126-6 ATS, 54.3 percent, just over two percent off the SU winning percentage.

As to be expected there are winners and losers in each conference, thus let’s take a look at who is profiting and who is not on either side of the Mississippi River.

The two West squads that have taken everyone aback are up and comers Oklahoma City and Memphis. Unquestionably these are two young and talented teams who could change the dynamics of the Western Conference if they can keep their nucleus’ together while adding more quality to their rosters in the seasons to come. Each has grown this season by beating up the East. The Thunder is 16-6 SU and ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-6 and 10-5 ATS. Oklahoma City in particular has been impressive in winning by 6.6 points per contest.

The Los Angeles Lakers have enjoyed the most non-conference success at 17-3, but most nights are fighting the oddsmakers for their supporters and are a fair 10-8-2 ATS. The other club that plays in the Staples Center is actually a better bet and has shown real signs of improvement despite lacking players they thought they could count on like No. 1 pick Blake Griffin and Kareem Rush, both injured all or most of the season. The Clippers are 11-8 and 12-6-1 ATS.

A number of other teams have winning records, however are not at least to this point an overwhelming wager. Denver has 13-6 (11-8 ATS) record, San Antonio 13-5 (10-8 ATS), Utah 13-6 (11-8 ATS) and Dallas is 14-5 with only 9-10 spread mark.

The biggest disappointments out West have been Houston at 5-9 ATS with six wins and Sacramento at 6-13 SU and ATS when they face teams from at least two zones away. Golden State may be 6-13, but their style of play leaves Eastern teams confounded and the Warriors are 11-7-1 ATS.

Not every East team is horrible versus the West, it just seems that way. Six Eastern teams have winning records against their Western counterparts; however a couple of those are a loss or two from being .500 or less straight up. For those laying down the cash, Atlanta is the best at 12-7 ATS with a 13-6 SU record. The Hawks are where Oklahoma City and Memphis envision themselves in a year or two or possibly sooner, a good team that has young veteran talent which still has an upside.

Cleveland is the best of the East bunch at 18-5, handing the Lakers two of their three Eastern defeats. Nonetheless, like L.A., oddsmakes often leave the Cavs too many points to overcome with a 13-10-1 ATS mark. Boston has a representative 10-6 record, but being a public team and injury-plagued are a crestfallen 4-11-1 ATS.

The lousy teams in the East are rotten pretty much against whomever they play. Here are their crummy numbers.

Philadelphia 7-14, 9-12 ATS
Washington 4-14, 7-10-1 ATS
Detroit 4-15, 7-12 ATS
Indiana 4-14, 6-12 ATS

You are probably wondering about New Jersey, because they have been so insufferable, thought the Nets deserved special mention at 1-19 and 5-15 ATS. Their Atlantic Division partner New York, is a sleepy 6-11 vs. the West, yet about even money bet at 9-8 ATS.

In conclusion, when East meets West, the teams in the Central and Eastern Time zones consistently come up short and are poor wagers.

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NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 1/29-1/31
2010-01-29

This weekend’s action in the NBA will wrap up the month of January, meaning we are just 2-1/2 short months away from the playoffs already. Even as of now, we are getting a good feel for which teams figure to be involved in the playoff chase the rest of the way. The top eight seeds in the Eastern Conference have separated from #9 by 3-games. In the West, the picture is a bit more muddled, with 11 teams distancing themselves and vying for eight spots. In fact, seeds #4-11 are separated by just three games heading into this weekend’s action. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the next three days, particularly those games involving playoff hopefuls. We’ll also reveal our weekly Top StatFox Power Trends that could affect the wagering action.

Unlike recent weekends, the slate over the next three days is loaded on each day. On Friday, there are 12 games, but unlike usual, there is no ESPN doubleheader to take in. There really should be too, since there is a nice board of games to choose from. In the East, Boston will be visiting Atlanta, looking to turn the tide of three straight losses to the Hawks. The Celtics are finally back at near full strength with Kevin Garnett having returned after missing 10 games due to injury. They have been a disappointment for bettors this season but could be ready to go on a run. This will be a difficult spot for Boston, considering it just played on Thursday in Orlando, and is just 2-6 ATS on zero days rest. Atlanta is one of the NBA’s best teams at home, boasting an 18-5 SU & 16-7 ATS mark. The Hawks are also 9-2 SU & ATS vs. Atlantic Division foes.

In the Western Conference on Friday, there are three compelling matchups between potential playoff contenders. Denver, the current #2 seed in the conference, visits Oklahoma City, looking to extend an 8-game winning streak. The Thunder have lost three straight and hope to avoid their first 4-game skid of the season. Watch the line closely, as Denver is 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog. In Houston, the Blazers & Rockets will get together. The teams are separated by 2-games right now in the standings and each has lost at least its last two games. Strangely, Portland would love to stay in the West, as they boast a 17-9 SU & 15-11 ATS mark vs. conference foes. Finally, in San Antonio, the Spurs will host the Grizzlies. Don’t look now, but Memphis has crept to within a game of the Spurs by winning eight of its L10 games. The Griz are just 8-14 on the road though, and allow nearly 108 PPG. San Antonio is having all kinds of problems maintaining any consistency.

Saturday’s board is the lightest of the three days this weekend, but still six different games are on tap, including three between playoff hopefuls. In Orlando, the Magic will welcome the Hawks to town. Atlanta and Orlando will have each hosted Boston since Thursday, so the common opponent rule of handicapping could be applied. The Hawks are 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS on zero days rest in ’09-10. A bit later, New Orleans will visit Memphis, and Portland will be in Dallas. The city of New Orleans is of course “abuzz” about the Saints, but the Hornets have picked up their play of late, and were 16-4 at home heading into the weekend. Dallas continues to have trouble covering pointspreads at home, owning just a 5-16 ATS mark despite winning 14 of the 21 games outright. The Mavericks recently tied the record for most consecutive wins in one-point games, beating Milwaukee Tuesday for their 10th straight such decision.

The Sunday board is the biggest of the year, as the NBA takes advantage of the off-week in lead up to the Super Bowl. ABC is back at it too, offering up a stellar doubleheader in the afternoon. At 1:00 PM ET, the Nuggets and Spurs will tip it off from San Antonio. It will be just the second time the teams have met this season, with the Spurs looking to avenge a 106-99 defeat at home back in December. At 3:30 PM ET, the Lakers will continue their long 8-game road trip with a stop in Boston. These are the last two NBA champions and figure to be among the last teams standing in May and June.

Now, here are those top trends you’ll want to consider as you build your wagering cards for the weekend:

Friday, 01/29/2010
(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 89.8, OPPONENT 106.9 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) DENVER vs. (814) OKLAHOMA CITY
DENVER is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51%-60%) in 2nd half of the last 3 seasons. The average score was DENVER 111.3, OPPONENT 96 - (Rating = 2*)

(817) MEMPHIS vs. (818) SAN ANTONIO
MEMPHIS is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MEMPHIS 97.1, OPPONENT 105.3 - (Rating = 2*)

(817) MEMPHIS vs. (818) SAN ANTONIO
MEMPHIS is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 105.8, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(823) NEW ORLEANS vs. (824) GOLDEN STATE
NEW ORLEANS is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97, OPPONENT 104.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 01/30/2010
(501) ATLANTA vs. (502) ORLANDO
ATLANTA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games vs. good teams outscoring foes by 3+ PPG in 2nd half of L3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 87.6, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(501) ATLANTA vs. (502) ORLANDO
ATLANTA is 25-6 UNDER (+18.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 92, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 4*)

(505) NEW YORK vs. (506) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 100.1, OPPONENT 104.5 - (Rating = 3*)

(511) CHARLOTTE vs. (512) SACRAMENTO
SACRAMENTO is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SACRAMENTO 97.4, OPPONENT 110.2 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 01/31/2010
(805) LA CLIPPERS vs. (806) CLEVELAND
LA CLIPPERS are 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) vs good shooting teams (>=46% FG Pct) in 2nd half of the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 93.8, OPPONENT 109.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) PHILADELPHIA vs. (808) NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 88.8, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) NEW YORK vs. (814) MINNESOTA
NEW YORK is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) vs. poor 3PT shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts this season. The average score was NEW YORK 97.2, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 4*)

(817) PHOENIX vs. (818) HOUSTON
PHOENIX is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) vs poor defensive teams (FG Pct defense >=46%) in 2nd half of last 3 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 122.3, OPPONENT 108.7 - (Rating = 2*)

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NBA: Memphis is marvelous
2010-01-29

The Memphis Grizzlies have learned to win games with defense during their remarkable run since mid-December, and that’s exactly how they beat the San Antonio Spurs earlier this month. Even with the blueprint to beat the Spurs, winning in San Antonio has been another matter. The Grizzlies will catch a break as they try to avoid their 10th straight loss at the AT&T Center on Friday night, though, as the Spurs won’t have Tony Parker due to an ankle injury. The hosts are a 5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and have caught the attention of 64% of bettors.

Memphis (25-19, 26-18 ATS) has won 15 of 19 games since Dec. 18, covering the spread a fantastic 14 times, a record that’s the best in the Western Conference in that stretch and has helped move it into playoff position.

The Grizzlies have averaged 106.7 points in that stretch, but they’ve displayed some defensive prowess over the past few weeks. Memphis held San Antonio (26-18, 22-21-1 ATS) to 41.4 percent shooting in a 92-86 home win Jan. 16, and limited its last three opponents to 90.3 points per game - 13.1 below its average allowance.

One of the biggest reasons for that defensive improvement is center Marc Gasol, who’s one of five players in the league to average at least 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steal. Gasol has also refined his offensive game, giving the Grizzlies a fourth scorer that averages at least 15.0 points alongside Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and two steals in Wednesday’s 99-93 win at Detroit.

Memphis has won its past four games in which it failed to score 100 points after going 2-11 in its first 13 such contests. “We’re a different team,” Gasol told the NBA’s official Web site. “We’ve changed our mentality and we’re working harder.” Gasol is certainly correct with Memphis 16-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

The Grizzlies have won their past three games by six points or fewer, and Wednesday’s victory was their 25th - one more than they had last season and they are 14-4 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots this season.

A win in San Antonio for the first time since Feb. 26, 2005 (4-5 ATS in that span), would tie the Grizzlies with the Spurs for second place in the Southwest Division, and they won’t have to worry about one of San Antonio’s top offensive threats.

The Spurs snapped a three-game losing streak Wednesday with an impressive 105-90 win over Atlanta, but Parker sprained his left ankle and will sit Friday and possibly Sunday against Denver. “We’re going to have to adjust to it,” said Tim Duncan, who grabbed a career-high 27 rebounds and scored 21 points. “We’re trying to get something going here and then we lose Tony. We’ll find a way to get it done.” Finding a way has been a specialty of San Antonio who is 11-3 ATS facing clubs that hoist up 83 or more shots a contest.

Parker averaged 18.6 points and 7.0 assists during the Spurs’ nine straight home wins over the Grizzlies, but he was held to four points in the loss in Memphis last month. Duncan and the Grizzlies’ Randolph each had 23 points in that game - Randolph has scored 20 or more in eight straight games - but the Spurs will want to keep close tabs on Mayo. The third overall pick of the 2008 draft has averaged 30.5 points in his two visits to San Antonio - the last of which was a 106-103 overtime loss on Dec. 27, 2008.

With Parker sidelined, the Spurs are five-point favorites with 199 total. Surprisingly, San Antonio is 5-19 ATS revenging a road loss since last year, losing by an average of almost two points per game. Here is a crazy number for the home team, they are 14-1 UNDER after a game where they had two or less steals. The Grizzlies are roaring with confidence, 15-1 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season and 14-4 OVER as a road underdog.

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NBA: Chicago is bullish on road trip
2010-01-29

The Chicago Bulls’ season-high seven-game road trip had all the makings of a disaster after they opened with losses to a pair of Western Conference also-rans. Four games later, it’s looking like the spark that’s turned the season around. The Bulls try to close the trip with a fifth straight win Friday night against the New Orleans Hornets, who look to protect one of the West’s best home records upon returning from their own successful road swing. The Hornets are the 4-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, but 70% of bettors prefer the piping-hot Bulls.

Chicago (22-22, 21-21-2 ATS) has won four in a row for the third time since Christmas, but this latest run is easily the most surprising. The Bulls were 4-15 on the road after losses to Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers to open this trip, but they’ve knocked off four consecutive playoff contenders.

Coach Vinny Del Negro (who was rumored to be almost fired right after Christmas) has seen his team shoot 50.6 percent from the floor while holding opponents to 39.4 percent, and its most impressive defensive effort came Wednesday in Oklahoma City. Chicago limited the Thunder to 36.9 percent shooting, hounding Kevin Durant into a 7-for-19 effort and leaving with a 96-86 win. The Bulls win made them 7-0 ATS in road games playing against team with a 51 to 60 percent win percentage this season and tonight offers another such opportunity.

Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas keyed a 96-85 win over New Orleans (25-20, 22-23 ATS) on Dec. 26 at the United Center. Noah had 17 points, 18 rebounds and four blocks, while Thomas had 21 points and nine boards off the bench. Chicago, which has followed its previous four-game win streaks with at least two straight losses, hasn’t won five in a row on the road since concluding the 2005-06 season on a six-game run. The Bulls are 17-6 ATS playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.

The Hornets have won 16 of 20 at home (10-10 ATS), where they return following an impressive trip. New Orleans closed with a third victory in four games - its only loss coming in overtime to Denver on Saturday - after Chris Paul had 38 points in a 123-110 win over Golden State on Wednesday. The Hornets were 6-15 and 9-12 ATS on the road heading into the trip. “This was a big trip for us. We won in some tough venues,” said Paul, who averaged 27.8 points on 58.8 percent shooting. “Everyone knows the road has been our Achilles’ heel so far.”

The play of Paul’s new backcourt mate has also been critical. Rookie Marcus Thornton averaged 18.5 points in the final two games of the trip, starting after New Orleans shipped Devin Brown to the Bulls for backup center Aaron Gray on Monday. Brown, who has yet to play for the Bulls, led New Orleans with 22 points in Chicago last month.

The Hornets’ fortunes Friday, though, may depend on David West. The two-time All-Star, scoring 17.7 points per game, has averaged 11.0 in the last two losses to the Bulls and his team is 3-5 in last eight meetings with the Bulls with two covers.

New Orleans is a four-point favorite with total of 198 at Sportsbook.com and is 24-9 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs. opponent and is 8-1 UNDER at home trying to get even with same team off a road loss. Despite the four consecutive road upsets, normally Chicago doesn’t set up very well in a spot like this with 12-26 ATS record off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. They are 9-0 OVER as visiting dogs off the upset surprise win by 10 points or more.

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NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 1/22-1/24
2010-01-22

The NBA season pushes towards the all-star break with another full weekend of games and betting opportunities. Like last weekend, to avoid any conflict with the NFL’s conference title games, most of the NBA action has been squeezed into Friday and Saturday. In fact, 23 of the 26 weekend games will be played on those two days, meaning a ton of back-to-back situations to profit from if done right. Read on I take a look at some of the feature games on tap, plus reveal a list of a few of the top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your wagering.

On Friday, the opportunities are plentiful, with 13 games to choose from, highlighted by the ESPN doubleheader. In the first game, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, fresh off the Thursday night showdown in Cleveland, will make stop #2 on their long road trip by visiting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in New York. Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS when playing on a second consecutive night this season, while the Knicks boast a promising 8-5 ATS mark versus the West. In the late game, the Bulls also continue a lengthy road trip with a stop in Phoenix. Chicago has lost its first two games on a 6-stop Western Conference trip, and goes into this game with marks of just 4-15 on the road and 5-10 vs. the West. The Suns snapped a 4-game losing skid by whipping New Jersey on Wednesday and will look to extend their 16-4 record at home.

Elsewhere on Friday, Houston visits San Antonio in a battle of normal powers stuck in recent skids. The Rockets beat Milwaukee on Monday and haven’t played since, but will be coming into this game as losers of seven of their last eight games against the spread. The Spurs have dropped three out of four since reaching a season high 11-games over .500 last week. They shot just over 40% from the floor during the 4-game stretch after a run of shooting better than 45% in 12 of 13 games. In Boston, the Celtics will look to span a 3-game losing skid, and improve on their 6-12 ATS home record when they host Portland.

On Saturday, there are 10 games on the board, and 17 teams will be playing on a second consecutive night in the variety of scenarios. Two of them will be in the coveted home to home situation, those teams being Detroit, who hosts Portland, and Phoenix, who takes on Golden State. Six other teams will be playing their second consecutive night on the road, clearly the worse of the scheduling evils in the NBA. Those teams are Golden State, Chicago, Sacramento, Portland, Oklahoma City, and New Orleans. Of these to be road warriors, Golden State (at Pheonix) and Portland (at Detroit) boast the best marks when playing on a second straight night, each 6-3 ATS. Chicago has struggled in such situations, going 2-7 ATS this season, and figures to have its hands full in Houston, as the Rockets boast a healthy 13-5 SU & 11-7 ATS record at home. Among the other interesting games to consider, Orlando tries to snap out of a recent funk when it visits rapidly improving Charlotte, and Oklahoma City takes on Cleveland in a battle of top scorers in Kevin Durant and Lebron James.

Finally, on Sunday, the NBA weekend wraps up with three games, two of which will tip-off well before the football games get underway, as Dallas visits New York, and the Clippers are in Washington, each with a 1:05 PM ET start. The Mavericks remain one of the league’s top teams on the road, and were 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS in the road chalk role heading into the weekend. The Clippers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA in terms of covering spreads of late, and own a 9-4-1 ATS mark vs. the East. The other game finds the Lakers in Toronto for an evening affair, and the Raptors will be looking to improve a 3-5 ATS mark as home dogs.

Now, here are those top StatFox Power Trends as promised earlier…

Friday, 01/22/2010
(811) CHARLOTTE vs. (812) ATLANTA
CHARLOTTE is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) vs. up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHARLOTTE 98.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*)

(811) CHARLOTTE vs. (812) ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 25-5 UNDER (+19.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 91.6, OPPONENT 92.5 - (Rating = 4*)

(815) LA LAKERS vs. (816) NEW YORK
LA LAKERS are 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games vs. up-tempo teams averaging >=83 FG Atts/G over L3 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 115, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 2*)

(817) INDIANA vs. (818) DETROIT
DETROIT is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 91.9, OPPONENT 97.4 - (Rating = 2*)

(819) NEW ORLEANS vs. (820) MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 91.6, OPPONENT 103 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 01/23/2010
(509) OKLAHOMA CITY vs. (510) CLEVELAND
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. good shooting teams making >=46% of shots this season. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)

(515) NEW ORLEANS vs. (516) DENVER
NEW ORLEANS is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) vs. explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 96.1, OPPONENT 104.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(517) GOLDEN STATE vs. (518) PHOENIX
GOLDEN STATE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games vs. poor pressure teams (forcing <=14 TOs/g) over L2 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.3, OPPONENT 111.3 - (Rating = 2*)

(519) NEW JERSEY vs. (520) UTAH
Jerry Sloan is 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) vs. terrible 3PT shooting teams -making <=30% of attempts as the coach of UTAH. The average score was Sloan 99.1, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 01/24/2010
(801) LA CLIPPERS vs. (802) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 100.1, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 2*)

(803) DALLAS vs. (804) NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 101.6, OPPONENT 102.4 - (Rating = 2*)

(805) LA LAKERS vs. (806) TORONTO
LA LAKERS are 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 103.4, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 2*)

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NBA: Lakers and Cavaliers Clash (8:00 PM ET, TNT)
2010-01-21

In a possible NBA finals preview Thursday night, Cleveland will host the Los Angeles Lakers, who have a score to settle after being embarrassed 102-87 by the Cavs on Christmas Day. It was a lump-of-coal-in-the-stocking-loss that ended with irate Lakers fans tossing foam fingers—and a few filled water bottles— onto the Staples Center court in anger. In tonight’s rematch, the host Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but the majority of bettors, 83%, are looking for the Lakers to keep ti close or pull the upset.

In December, with Mo Williams scoring 28 points, James adding 26 and Shaquille O’Neal acting as their enforcer, the Cavaliers bullied the defending NBA champions, whose frustration level led to them retaliating with some cheap shots and being slapped with several technical fouls.

“We didn’t like that Christmas game,” Lakers center Pau Gasol said. “It was very disappointing on our part. We’ve got to try to get that ballgame when we play them again. We need to do that. You never want a team to get the confidence they can beat you, especially when it’s somebody you might see down the road in the playoffs.” The Lakers are 33-20 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by three or points game over the last two seasons.

The stop in Cleveland begins a demanding, eight-game road trip for the Lakers (32-9, 18-22-1 ATS), who have the league’s best record in part because of a favorable schedule. They’ve played just 15 road games—compared to 25 for the Cavs—and the imbalance has helped Los Angeles open a five-game lead over Dallas in the Western Conference. L.A. is 9-6 on the road, but just 5-10 ATS.

That could change depending on how the Lakers handle a stretch of eight games in 13 days, including three sets of back-to-backs. Last season, Los Angeles went 6-0 on a similar Eastern trip that helped propel the Lakers to a title.

First, though, they want to erase the memories of an unhappy holiday that was particularly hazardous for forward Ron Artest.

“That Christmas game was tough, and then that whole day wasn’t too good for me, anyway,” said Artest, who suffered a concussion in a fall at home hours after the loss to Cleveland. “We feel like we’re a better team now than when we played them before.”

The Cavaliers believe they are better, too.

At 32-11 (20-22-1 ATS), Cleveland has the best record in the East, and with 23 of their final 39 games at home, the Cavs have a chance to run away from Boston, Orlando and Atlanta, their closest competitors in the conference. They just returned from a West Coast trip, where they displayed some bad habits—a tendency to rely too heavily on James—and also some new offensive wrinkles with O’Neal on the floor. They are on a run of 15-6 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Seconds after LeBron James and his Cavaliers teammates dismissed the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday, one excited Cleveland fan began a solitary chant.

“Beat L.A., Beat L.A.,” he screamed.

Dude, chill. It’s January. But maybe not too early to dream about June.
After all, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are coming.

Lakers coach Phil Jackson doesn’t want his team to get too caught up in Thursday’s matchup or the Lakers’ upcoming trip, which will take the club to New York on Friday and won’t conclude until Feb. 1 in Memphis.
“Last year’s road trip jump-started our season,” he said. “I’m setting a low bar for this team, though. We don’t need to put too much emphasis on the entire trip as a whole. We just need to play good, solid games and avoid injuries, starting in Cleveland. We don’t assign a whole lot extra importance to that game, even though it is an interesting game.”
Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 194.5 at Sportsbook.com and has covered seven straight as home favorite of 4.5 or less points. The one potential downfall for the Cavs is they have not covered the number in their last seven games (0-6-1 ATS) off a win and is 27-12 UNDER in home games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

The Lakers are 29-14 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and will want to get that bad taste out of their mouths from Christmas Day. Los Angeles has covered their last four Thursday assignments and is 18-6 UNDER when playing with two days rest since last season.
This is the 8:05 Eastern matchup on TNT and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the head-to-head series with the UNDER 5-0 in Cleveland.

The StatFox Power Line shows Cleveland by 5, and getting a chance to back the Cavs as this small of a home favorite is a rarity.

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