Pro Basketball Gambling

Pro Basketball Gambling

NBA Draft Wrap 2010
2010-07-06

Games are never won on paper, but immediately after last night’s draft there appear to be some definite winners and losers. Despite all the prognostications, drafting is one of the most inexact sciences in sports, especially as different players mature at different rates. Potential is one of the greatest, and riskiest, factors considered by NBA teams. With that, here are the preliminary impressions of last night’s draft.

Winners

Detroit Pistons- The Pistons were extremely lucky to have Greg Monroe fall to them with the seventh pick of the draft. He was expected to go higher and fits Detroit’s low-post need; expect to see Monroe contribute from the beginning. Drafting Terrico White with the 36th pick is another flat-out steal; White may have been the best athlete in the draft. Although guard is not a huge need for the Pistons, his development could make the aging Richard Hamilton expendable.

Los Angeles Clippers- The Clippers filled their two biggest needs: small forward and backup point guard. Al-Farouq Aminu has star potential and should be an integral part of LA’s young nucleus at small forward. With Baron Davis not getting any younger, it was very savvy for the Clippers to acquire Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe was overshadowed by John Wall at Kentucky last year and may turn out to be one of the draft’s better sleepers. Learning from Davis will season him even more. As if this draft couldn’t get any better, the Clippers landed Willie Warren, once considered a top 10 talent, with the 54th overall pick. If Warren is able to undergo an attitude adjustment, he could be a big contributor at the NBA level.

Oklahoma City Thunder- The NBA’s team of the future entered the draft knowing it needed to fortify the post. They did exactly that, trading to get Cole Aldrich. Aldrich is a physical presence capable of playing both post positions and may finally be the one to close OKC’s revolving door at center. GM Sam Presti also shrewdly dealt Eric Bledsoe for a future first round pick from the Clippers. Bledsoe is a good player but the Clippers are unlikely to get out of the lottery in the near future, virtually assuring OKC of a high pick.

Losers

Golden State Warriors- Drafting Ekpe Udoh sixth overall was a reach, to say the least. The Warriors were seduced by Udoh’s athleticism and workouts and ignored the fact that, even at 23 years old, he is still very raw. Some point to Udoh’s two pedestrian seasons at Michigan and wonder if his one successful year at Baylor was a byproduct of their system. Even more befuddling is the fact that Golden State has two other players in Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph who are essentially the same: athletic small forwards who need seasoning. This was a misdirected pick and the Warriors should have targeted Greg Monroe.

New York Knicks- The Knicks spent both their second round picks on players—Andy Rautins and Landry Fields—who some didn’t even expected to be drafted. They could both be serviceable NBA role players, but the Knicks’ thinking is confusing because the players are so similar. These picks were obviously made with the intent of surrounding LeBron James with shooters but if he signs elsewhere, this thinking looks even more misguided.

Could Go Either Way

Sacramento Kings- On the surface, one would think the Kings had a tremendous draft. Some thought DeMarcus Cousins had the talent to go number one overall and corralling him at five was fortuitous. The same goes for Hassan Whiteside, who slipped to 33 after once being regarded as a lottery pick. However, drafting both of them together may pose some problems. Both saw their stock drop due to questionable attitudes and they play the same position, creating a potential logjam at center along with Samuel Dalembert, who will command minutes in a contract year. There is no doubting the talent but the Kings will need to have a coach capable of developing chemistry and fostering maturity in these players, especially when minutes may be scarce.

Indiana Pacers- GM Larry Bird eschewed his tradition of taking proven college players by making some risky picks. Paul George has tremendous upside but can be turnover prone and lack motivation. Perhaps the biggest question is how he’ll play with superstar Danny Granger, who has a very similar style. Magnum Rolle brings length and athleticism and Lance Stephenson has tremendous upside and was a great value pick in the second round. However, Stephenson’s attitude is widely questioned and if he doesn’t mature, he could harm team chemistry.

When NBA betting get to www.sportsbook.com the home of NBA betting.

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NBA: San Antonio-Phoenix Series Betting Preview
2010-05-03

This past weekend we heard a great deal about how Boston and Cleveland don’t really like each other. While this information is certainly true it pales in comparison to how Phoenix and San Antonio feel about one another. That is Microsoft and Apple doing battle, this is the real deal like Coke vs. Pepsi, McDonald’s vs. Burger King, Jennifer Aniston vs. Angelina Jolie. What’s more the Suns have been bounced out of the playoffs four times by the team from southwest Texas since 2003. This is going to be war. Sportsbook.com provided the series odds, installing the Suns as -145 favorites. Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Steve Nash did not practice the previous two days before this Western Conference semi-final opened, resting his sore right hip. The most obvious question was it a reoccurrence of the infamous hip check former Spur Robert Horry laid on Nash or something completely different.

The Suns have had the home court advantage over San Antonio the last two times these teams have met in the postseason and came up short. They believe this time will be different, not being strictly a running team and being able to play defense for extended periods of time.

"It's like super-transition `D' against these guys," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're really playing well, and the best shooting team ever, basically, from 3. Great chemistry, sharing the ball, playing 'D'. Alvin (Coach Gentry) and his group have done a great job. The players have really bought in, and they do a lot of things really well."

Phoenix will have to use similar formula that allowed them to win four of last five games against Portland. Running a controlled break which leads to layups or find spot up shooters like Jason Richardson and rain down three’s.

The Suns also received bench contributions from a number of players from Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley to Channing Frye and others. The Suns are 26-7 and 23-9-1 ATS since Feb. 19 (have not lost two straight since Jan. 25-26) and this streak coincided when they collectively bought into Gentry’s preaching about team defense and Amare Stoudemire deciding he wanted to be one of the best players in the NBA. Stoudemire loves to see the Spurs coming with 24.6-point playoff average against them (28.8 PPG if rookie season is dropped) and he posted 32.7 points and 11.3 rebounds on San Antonio this season.

Grant Hill might be 37, but he missed so much time over a five year period of his career, his legs are that of a much younger player and he is the Suns best defender. Whether he starts on Manu Ginibili is immaterial, since eventually he will make his way over to him defensively.

Though both teams have many new faces, Nash knows what to expect and believes the series will come down to "the usual suspects." For San Antonio that is Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili, especially right now.

Duncan has slowed from his early days, but he is still a crafty veteran and the Suns don’t have that big physical guy that could create more problems for Duncan even if Robin Lopez returns. Duncan should expect to see several combo defenses and will have to find shooters and cutters when the Suns double him.

Parker has accepted his role off the bench, still seeing ample minutes as George Hill takes over as true point guard. This allows Parker to freelance more without the ball and forces defenders to chase.

If it were not for Hill and Ginobili, a reasonable argument could be made the Spurs might not have made the playoffs when Parker was injured. The Argentinean has done everything, scoring literally anywhere on the floor and became the emotional leader. He is the one player in this series that could single-handedly win a game or two by himself.

Richard Jefferson could play a prominent role in this noteworthy conflict. The former Net and Buck didn’t have much of an impact during the regular season, but after being a non-factor in Game 1 loss to Dallas, the rest of the series he was steady contributor and if he can keep the Suns J-Rich busy on defense, it’s shown his point production diminishes.

Most of the confrontations in this series are expected to have totals of 200 or higher and Popovich’s teams are 53-36 ATS when the number is 200 or higher.

This series really comes down to a test of wills. Can Phoenix keep their poise and not let a few Spurs antics get to them? In the past San Antonio had a size edge over the Suns, they do not this time, will that be a burden? This has the look and feel of seven games and even that might not be enough for regulation play. As long as Nash is healthy, the Suns should finally knock off their nemesis like they did in the regular season (2-1 and 3-0 ATS), however it won’t be easy.

Pick- Phoenix (-145) in seven over San Antonio (+115)

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NBA: NBA Top Weekend Power Trends 4/9-4/11
2010-04-09

The final full regular season weekend of the 2009-10 NBA schedule is upon us and there is still plenty of sorting out to do yet before the playoffs commence next week. The seeding beyond the #2 spot in the East is still to be determined and in fact, the #8 seed is still up for grabs between Toronto and Chicago, who go into the weekend in a virtual tie with four games remaining. In the West, the eight playoff teams have already been determined for awhile, but the seeding of #2 through #8 is a complete mess. Four teams are separated by a single game for the #2 seed, while three others are tied for the #6. It would be impossible at this point to project the eventual playoff matchups. As such, let’s go through this weekend’s games and see if we can help clear up the picture a bit. Of course, we’ll also reveal the list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to consider as you handicap the action.

The Friday schedule of 13 games is absolutely loaded with key playoff implicating contests. In fact, in 11 of the games, at least one of the teams is hoping to either improve or maintain its playoff standing. In three of the games, both teams have a lot on the line. Let’s go through those. In Atlanta, the Raptors and Hawks will meet. Toronto is of course, tied with Chicago for the final East playoff spot. The Raptors have struggled on the road this season, going 14-25 SU & 17-21-1 ATS and will be matched against one of the league’s toughest hosts. The Hawks are 32-7 SU & 24-15 ATS at home but will be looking to snap a four game ATS winless skid. In Oklahoma City, the Thunder host the Suns. Phoenix is in the race for the #2 spot out West and comes in hot, having won 11 of 12 games. OKC might be wilting under the pressure of the playoff hunt, with just a 7-6 record in its L13 games. The Thunder still hope to avoid the #8 spot and a matchup with the Lakers. Finally, in Portland, the Mavericks are in town. The Blazers are another team that seems to have gotten hot at the right time, with an 11-2 mark in their L13 games. They’ve won six straight games at home. Dallas is headed the opposite direction, with a 6-6 mark in its L12, and opening a 3-game road swing here.

On Saturday, the schedule lightens a bit with just eight games on tap, but two will figure prominently in the eventual final standings in each conference. In the East, the Celtics visit the Bucks in a potential first round playoff preview. If the playoffs started today, that would be the matchup. In fact, the teams still play each other one more time in the regular season, that being on the final day, Wednesday. Milwaukee won the most recent matchup between the teams, 86-84 in early March, but that was with Andrew Bogut in the lineup. The Bucks are still getting used to life without him since his horrific elbow injury but have still won three straight games in his absence headed into the weekend. With a current 7-game ATS winning streak, Milwaukee owns the best overall mark in the league at 50-26-2 ATS. Out West, the big game puts San Antonio in Denver. The Nuggets came up with a big win at home on Thursday vs. the Lakers to retake the lead for the #2 spot in the playoff race. If they win out in their final three games, they’ll clinch the spot. The Spurs have not given up on a Top 4 seed and home court for the first round yet, but will need to win out and get help to accomplish that goal. The return of PG Tony Parker this past week should give them a lift.

On Sunday, there are seven games, and all but one will affect the playoff chase. The ABC doubleheader pits Orlando and Cleveland followed by Portland and the Lakers. Unfortunately for the network, the two host clubs have little to play for this next week and in fact, in their outings on Thursday night, stars LeBron James and Kobe Bryant actually sat out for rest. Of the four teams, the game means most to Portland, who hopes to win while avoiding looking ahead to a Monday game at home vs. Oklahoma City. A win could also help the Blazers avoid a potential first round rematch with the Lakers in the playoffs. Perhaps the biggest game on Sunday is one that would have normally flown under the radar, a 6:00 PM ET start between Chicago and Toronto. With the teams having gone into the weekend in a tie for the #8 spot, the game is crucial to each club’s playoff hopes. It is most critical for the Bulls though, as the Raptors own the tiebreakers between the teams by virtue of two head-to-head wins early in the season. On top of that, the Raptors face Detroit and New York in their final two games while the Bulls have the Celtics and Bobcats yet to play.

With so much big-time action on tap for the weekend, you’ll want to get to your handicapping early. Hopefully these Top StatFox Power Trends help do the trick:
Friday, 04/09/2010

(703) NEW YORK vs. (704) ORLANDO

NEW YORK is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 101.1, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(705) WASHINGTON vs. (706) BOSTON
BOSTON is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. The average score was BOSTON 101, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 3*)

(705) WASHINGTON vs. (706) BOSTON

WASHINGTON is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 92.4, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)

(715) LA LAKERS vs. (716) MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 11-30 ATS (-22 Units) at home against teams with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 94.8, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(719) UTAH vs. (720) NEW ORLEANS
UTAH is 32-10 ATS (+21 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was UTAH 105.7, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 04/10/2010

(501) NEW JERSEY vs. (502) INDIANA

NEW JERSEY is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 87.1, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(509) BOSTON vs. (510) MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) vs good shooting teams making >=46% of FG atts in 2nd half of this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 100.3, OPPONENT 97.7 - (Rating = 2*)

(511) SAN ANTONIO vs. (512) DENVER

DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The average score was DENVER 98, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 2*)

(515) GOLDEN STATE vs. (516) LA CLIPPERS

GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ PPG this season. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.5, OPPONENT 103.5 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 04/11/2010

(701) ORLANDO vs. (702) CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 97.8, OPPONENT 87.6 - (Rating = 3*)

(705) MIAMI vs. (706) NEW YORK

MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The average score was MIAMI 103.4, OPPONENT 88.4 - (Rating = 2*)

(709) MINNESOTA vs. (710) NEW ORLEANS

NEW ORLEANS is 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) vs poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 103.1, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 4*)

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NBA Playoffs Futures Odds Revealing
2009-04-13

With the NBA playoffs about to commence, 16 teams will battle fatigue, injuries, and each other over the course of the next two months for the coveted Larry O’Brien Trophy. Boston is of course, the defending champion and hopes to be at full strength to make another run at the title. Hoping to knock the Celtics off their perch are other frontrunners like Cleveland, Orlando, and the Lakers however. Those latter clubs are the biggest threats to Boston’s supremacy, but there are several others, particularly in the Western Conference, who hope to have their say as well. With that in mind, here is a look at both conferences and each team’s chances, using Sportsbook.com’s playoff futures odds as a guide. After all, these are the “experts” right? In any case, let’s see if we can uncover any potential mistakes they’ve made.

Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference boasts three of the top four teams in the NBA in terms of both record and chances at winning the Finals’ series in June. Cleveland will be the top seed, and that could be a huge advantage in that the Cavaliers will be able to avoid both Boston and Orlando until the conference finals. Beyond those three clubs, the remaining teams will be hard pressed to make much noise in the postseason. Here’s a look at each Eastern Conference club along with their odds and reasons as to why they can/can’t reach the ultimate destination.

Atlanta Hawks
Odds to win NBA Title: +2500
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +5000
Reasons they can win: Atlanta has a young, athletic, and diverse starting five that has proven the ability to compete, especially on the home court. The Hawks have also shown streak-ability, as CBS’ Clark Kellogg might say.
Reasons they can’t: To get to the NBA Finals, Atlanta might have to go through Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, and then Dwight Howard (or the Celtics).

Boston Celtics
Odds to win NBA Title: +450
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +200
Reasons they can win: The Celtics are the defending champs and their veteran leaders figure to play with the “Heart of a Champion” come postseason time. They are a big game team with several clutch big-play makers, including Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.
Reasons they can’t: Kevin Garnett’s nagging injury problems are a HUGE challenge for this team to overcome. If he is not healthy, Boston’s lineup inside is suspect and takes away the only advantage they have over Cleveland.

Chicago Bulls
Odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +5000
Reasons they can win: The Bulls have come on like gangbusters in the second half of the season as they’ve grown more accustomed to Vinny Del Negro’s coaching ways. The personnel changes Chicago made at mid-season also helped immensely, bringing in Miller and Salmons from Sacramento. Also, Derrick Rose is a future all-star/MVP candidate.
Reasons they can’t: Fighting from the 7th or 8th seed in the East this year is going to be nearly impossible to overcome. In some ways, you’d rather be #8 and hope for a miracle takedown of Cleveland then a more manageable matchup in the second round. Also, Chicago isn’t anywhere near as good defensively as it was under Scott Skiles.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Odds to win NBA Title: +175
Odds to win Eastern Conference: -200
Reasons they can win: Lebron James and home court advantage are enough reasons why Cleveland will be disappointed this June if it does NOT win the NBA championship. With odds of -200 to win the East, oddsmakers seem to be telling us to expect to see James and valuable offseason addition Mo Williams playing in the Finals in June.
Reasons they can’t: Regular season success is no automatic indicator of postseason happiness. Cleveland has stumbled a bit down the stretch, having big time problems covering pointspreads in the last month and a half. The Cavs also lost their final meetings of the year versus both Orlando and Boston.

Detroit Pistons
Odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +5000
Reasons they can win: Experience. This is the only reason I can think of. Experts will point to Detroit as a difficult first round matchup simply because of the postseason success the franchise has enjoyed in recent years.
Reasons they can’t: This Pistons’ team is just a shell of its former self. The trading away of Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson was a disaster, but it only gave the team another excuse for what was already a steep decline in play. Detroit doesn’t have the same defensive intensity or team unity it had pre-Michael Curry.

Miami Heat
Odds to win NBA Title: +4000
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +2000
Reasons they can win: Dwyane Wade has put this team on his back the entire season just as he did in the 2006 NBA playoffs. If you recall, the Heat won the title that year.
Reasons they can’t: Dwyane Wade has put this team on his back. Simply put, there is no other team in the NBA’s postseason that has so few other options than Miami. If Wade isn’t on top of his game, this team could be swept out of a series. The Heat were 1-6 down the stretch versus playoff teams as well.

Orlando Magic
Odds to win NBA Title: +1000
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +450
Reasons they can win: Orlando is the best long distance shooting team in the league and that dynamic forms the perfect balance for all-world big man Dwight Howard. The Magic are also the league’s best spread covering team, one of the top performing road clubs, and stellar against the Western Conference. A good run of shooting could net them a title.
Reasons they can’t: Orlando figures to have to go through Boston, Cleveland and Los Angeles to win the title. If the 3-point shooting goes awry in any one of those series’, this team is in trouble. The Magic also lack players with deep playoff experience.

Philadelphia 76ers
Odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Odds to win Eastern Conference: +4000
Reasons they can win: Like Chicago, the 76ers played their better basketball down the stretch, if for no other reason than finally settling on a lineup that would work the rest of the way once Elton Brand went down. The coaching change to Tony DiLeo has also provided a spark.
Reasons they can’t: The midseason magic has worn off of late, as the 76ers have struggled, particularly on the road as the season has wound down. With a probable matchup vs. Orlando or Boston in round one, Philly might have to steal two games on the road to have any chance to win a series.

Western Conference
The Western Conference playoff race figures to be the Lakers versus everyone else. Los Angeles has sprinted away from the pack this season, and believe me, I do mean pack. The #2 through #8 teams in the West are grouped as closely as any other season in the history of the NBA. The teams in that range are so closely matched that it doesn’t figure to even matter which teams play with home court edge in their respective series’. Rather, success will probably hinge on which teams execute better on both ends of the court for a prolonged period of time. However, none of it will likely matter come the end of May when the NBA is down to its Final Four, and the other West semi-finalist needs to take out L.A. to march on.

Dallas Mavericks
Odds to win NBA Title: +7500
Odds to win Western Conference: +3000
Reasons they can win: Dallas is right in the thick of the pool of teams in the West clamoring for attention. Any team that wins 50 games or close to it should have a chance at playoff time, and if the Mavericks can finalize a favorable playoff road by getting out of the 8th seed, they’ll have a chance to make some noise.
Reasons they can’t: Dallas’ window for championship success closed when Dwyane Wade went off in the 2006 NBA Finals. That was the best Mavericks team, the most united, and the most capable of bringing home the hardware. This team isn’t the same one.

Denver Nuggets
Odds to win NBA Title: +3000
Odds to win Western Conference: +800
Reasons they can win: The move to get Chauncey Billups from Detroit for Allen Iverson has helped turned Denver into a legitimate contender with both talent and playoff savvy. The Nuggets’ recent stretch of 13 wins in 14 games, while scoring 100+ points each time, demonstrated their ability to take it up a notch.
Reasons they can’t: The Nuggets have been awful in the postseason under George Karl, and come into this year’s playoffs on a skid of 2-16 SU & 3-15 ATS in their L18 games. It’s awfully hard to just flip the switch of playoff success.

Houston Rockets
Odds to win NBA Title: +3000
Odds to win Western Conference: +1500
Reasons they can win: Houston was in position to lock up the #3 seed in the West as of presstime, meaning the Rockets would gain home court advantage in the first round. They are 32-8 at home. Also, like Orlando, they boast a dynamic mix of good outside shooting and the dominant big man in Yao Ming.
Reasons they can’t: Houston hasn’t made it out of the first round since ’97, losing 22 of their last 34 playoff games. In addition, Denver and Portland are the only two other Western Conference playoff teams that the Rockets own a winning record over in the last three seasons.

Los Angeles Lakers
Odds to win NBA Title: +180
Odds to win Western Conference: -250
Reasons they can win: There are numerous reasons the Lakers can win the title, starting with their clear cut status as the West’s #1 seed, as well as their success against Cleveland and Boston this season (4-0). Of course they also boast that MVP-caliber player capable of carrying his team in big games…what’s his name again…oh yeah, Kobe Bryant.
Reasons they can’t: There are two major concerns for the Lakers as they make a bid for their first title in six years. First, they will be working Center Andrew Bynum back into the lineup in postseason action. Disruptions in personnel can be magnified in the postseason. Second, the Lakers floundered in the Finals last year against Boston’s half court defense, failing to even cover a pointspread in the six games.

New Orleans Hornets
Odds to win NBA Title: +3000
Odds to win Western Conference: +1500
Reasons they can win: If point guard play proves to be just as important in the NBA playoffs as it is in the NCAA Tournament, New Orleans is in as good of shape as anybody. The Hornets have also proven good but not great both on the road and at home, so stealing road wins is possible. That’s a key to taking playoff series’.
Reasons they can’t: The Hornets went into the 2008 playoffs with a lot more momentum than they are carrying now. That’s why they were able to beat Dallas in round one and nearly upset San Antonio a bit later. Coming into the ’09 postseason, New Orleans is just 7-7 down the stretch.

Portland Blazers
Odds to win NBA Title: +3000
Odds to win Western Conference: +1200
Reasons they can win: Youthful exuberance seems to be one of the biggest things going for Portland as it makes its first playoff appearance since ’03. The Blazers have a talented roster that is gelling more and more with every game it plays together. They might be too naïve to realize they aren’t supposed to win this early.
Reasons they can’t: The Blazers youth and inexperience can also be looked at as a negative. Typically the NBA postseason is a learning experience where teams build in successive seasons before reaching the pinnacle. Not to mention, Portland was 4-17 SU & 7-14 ATS as a road underdog as of presstime, and stealing road games is the key to surviving playoff series’.

San Antonio Spurs
Odds to win NBA Title: +800
Odds to win Western Conference: +400
Reasons they can win: The Spurs are as good as anybody when it comes to making clutch plays in playoff basketball. Head coach Greg Poppovich seems to always be able to push the right buttons. San Antonio’s past postseason success is a testament to that.
Reasons they can’t: The season-ending injury to Manu Ginobli is a killer. The Spurs are somewhat limited offensively as it is, and when Ginobli went down, they lost one of their few players who has proven capable of coming up big in the postseason. In addition, San Antonio has won just five of its L15 games against the Lakers, and the West road to the finals figures to go through L.A.

Utah Jazz
Odds to win NBA Title: +2000
Odds to win Western Conference: +1000
Reasons they can win: Other teams may boast similar or even better records at home, but no team has a better theoretical home court advantage than the Jazz. They figure to finish the season at 34-7 at home. That makes it tough on visiting playoff clubs to steal the key win. Also, Utah was 32-16 vs. the Western Conference as of presstime, regularly beating the clubs that stand between them and playoff success.
Reasons they can’t: Utah is another club that played streaky at times this season but played its better basketball earlier in the year. With a 6-13 ATS mark in March and April as of presstime, there is a big concern that the Jazz “used it up” in making their midseason surge.

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NBA: Milwaukee tries to end losing streak in New Jersey (7:30 PM ET, MSG)
2009-02-03

Richard Jefferson downplayed the importance of his first game against the New Jersey Nets since they traded him in the offseason, but it’s hard to imagine he won’t be feeling many emotions when he returns to the Izod Center for the first time as a visitor. Jefferson and the Milwaukee Bucks visit New Jersey on Tuesday, looking to win three straight for the second time this season.

This is the second time Jefferson is facing the Nets (21-27, 25-23 ATS), the team he spent the first seven years of his career with before being traded in the summer to Milwaukee (24-27, 29-20-2 ATS) for forwards Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. Jefferson scored 13 points on 3-of-15 shooting in his first meeting against them back on Jan. 9 in a 104-102 win.

Jefferson said the meeting was only important because of the standings, but he and former teammate Vince Carter shared laughs before the game. “I just tried to keep him in a good mood. Don’t want to (tick) someone like that off,” Jefferson said. “We don’t get to see each other that often, so whenever you do, you’ve got to crack a few jokes.”

Jefferson’s return to the Izod Center will likely be more emotional. He left as New Jersey’s second all-time leading scorer with 8,507 points, and played a part in leading the Nets to six straight playoff appearances from 2002-07, including trips to the NBA finals in 2002 and 2003.

This game also has obvious implications in the standings, since both teams are part of a crowded race for one of the last playoff spots in the East. Jefferson has additional motivation Tuesday as the Bucks look to win three straight for the second time this season. The Bucks are coming off a 110-107 win over Atlanta on Saturday. With the win, the Bucks improved to 2-2 since Michael Redd went down with a season-ending ACL and MCL tear in his left knee last week.

Charlie Villanueva scored 27 points and added seven rebounds and a season-high six assists while Jefferson and Ramon Sessions each had 20 points. Villanueva, who is averaging 15.2 points this season, has averaged 24.5 in the last eight games and 27.0 points in the last three.

“It was a big game for me,” said Villanueva, who was 8-of-15 from the floor, including 4-of-7 from 3-point range. “I played a lot of minutes in yesterday’s win. I just tried to follow up on that. I just got to keep it up and keep playing with the energy I have been playing with.”

Despite the loss of Redd and frequently playing without center Andrew Bogut, who has suffered nagging injuries, the Bucks have remained one of the best bets in the NBA, ranking fourth in winning percentage at 59.2 percent. Milwaukee in spite of 10-19 road record is 16-11-2 ATS in visiting uniforms and will take on New Jersey who has had more than their share of problems at home.

The Nets return home after a brutal stretch that featured plenty of road games. Beginning with their trip to Milwaukee last month, they have dropped nine of 12, with eight of those games coming on the road, including losses in Boston, New Orleans and San Antonio.

New Jersey is coming off an 85-83 win over Philadelphia on Saturday, snapping a three-game losing streak. Brook Lopez scored 24 points and added 17 rebounds while Devin Harris scored 17 points. Carter finished with seven points, playing only two minutes in the fourth quarter after spraining his ankle. He said, however, that the injury wasn’t serious and didn’t expect to miss Tuesday’s game.

“I thought those guys showed huge fight and grit,” Nets coach Lawrence Frank said. “It goes to show, when you play a little defense, you give yourself a chance.” Frank wishes his team would start playing better at home, where it has been a real struggle. New Jersey is 9-15 SU and ATS on the home hardwood, placing them among the worst in the NBA. They have been outscored by 4.2 points a game in Jersey and are 1-8 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog this season.

Despite their home failures, Sportsbook.com has the Nets as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 195. Milwaukee has been inferior for years and is curiously 2-13 ATS against teams outscored by their opponents by three points a game in the second half of the season. Having lost earlier to Milwaukee, the Nets are no sure thing with an 11-22 ATS mark in home games revenging a loss over the last two seasons.

The Nets previous nine opponents had averaged 102.0 points against them; however New Jersey is 15-7 UNDER after playing a road game this season. Milwaukee is down two starters, thus the total who appear an uncertainty unless you consider they are 12-2 UNDER in road games against Atlantic division foes since last year.

Jefferson will try to use the knowledge he had to help beat the Bucks five straight times in New Jersey (5-0 ATS), against the Nets, starting at 7:30 Eastern on MSG Network.

StatFox Power Line – Pick

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